Payroll employment
+29,000
September 2026, against +133,000 in August
About 496,000 jobs added over the past 12 months, roughly 41,000 a month. BLS: employment in every major industry changed little.
The Talent Market Pulse · Issue 1
Low hire, low fire: about one job seeker per opening
October 2026 · The September jobs report and August job openings · Published
September's jobs report and August's job openings survey describe the same market: employers are adding few people and letting few go. Payrolls grew by 29,000 in September and the unemployment rate edged up to 4.2%, both of which the Bureau of Labor Statistics called little changed. Openings slipped to 7.1 million, while quits held at 1.9% and layoffs stayed low at 1.0%.
Put the two surveys together and there is now about one unemployed person for every open job (0.99 in August). In March 2022 there were two openings for every job seeker. For hiring teams, that means fuller applicant pools, fewer roles opening from resignations, and pay that still rises about 3% a year.
The numbers that moved
Hiring
Job openings
7.1 million
August 2026, against 7.3 million in July
The openings rate eased to 4.3% from 4.4%. BLS counts the drop as little changed.
Source: Job Openings and Labor Turnover: August 2026, BLS · On the Index
Hires rate
3.3%
August 2026, against 3.2% in July
5.2 million hires against 1.6 million layoffs and discharges (a 1.0% layoff rate): little movement in either direction.
Slack
Unemployment rate
4.2%
September 2026, against 4.1% in August
Up a tenth on the month and still below the 4.4% of September 2025.
Source: The Employment Situation: September 2026, BLS · On the Index
Unemployed people per job opening
0.99
August 2026, against 0.94 in July
About one job seeker for every open role. In March 2022 the ratio was 0.49: two openings for every person looking.
Our calculation: 7.03 million unemployed people (household survey) divided by 7.08 million job openings (JOLTS), both for August 2026. March 2022: 6.03 million unemployed, 12.30 million openings.
Source: The Employment Situation: August 2026, BLS; Job Openings and Labor Turnover: August 2026, BLS
Labor force participation
61.8%
September 2026, against 61.6% in August
Up two tenths for a second month, from 61.4% in July.
Source: The Employment Situation: September 2026, BLS · On the Index
Turnover, pay and staffing
Quits rate
1.9%
August 2026, against 1.9% in July
3.1 million people quit, unchanged on the month and below the 2.0% of August 2025. Fewer resignations means fewer roles opening from turnover.
Source: Job Openings and Labor Turnover: August 2026, BLS · On the Index
Average hourly earnings, production and nonsupervisory
$32.60
September 2026, against $32.53 in August
Up 3.3% from $31.56 a year earlier: the cash cost of a role keeps rising.
Source: The Employment Situation: September 2026, BLS · On the Index
Staffing employment (temporary help services)
2.49 million
September 2026, against 2.50 million in August
Down 10,900 on the month and up 15,200 on the year: temp staffing, which tends to turn before the wider market, is treading water.
Source: The Employment Situation: September 2026, BLS · On the Index
All figures are seasonally adjusted. The August and September payroll, earnings and job-openings figures are preliminary and will be revised in later releases; each source links to the release as it was published.
What it means for hiring teams
Expect deeper applicant pools
With about one job seeker per opening, a posted role draws more candidates than it did in 2022. Ashby's recruiter data already counts 291 applications per hire in early 2026, roughly triple early 2021, so plan screening capacity, not just sourcing.
Source: Recruiter Productivity: 2026 Talent Trends Report, Ashby
Plan for less backfill
Quits at 1.9% mean fewer resignations to replace, so this year's hiring plan rests more on new roles than on churn.
Price offers on this year's pay
Hourly pay for production and nonsupervisory workers is up 3.3% on the year. Offers set on last year's bands will look thin, even in a looser market.
For agencies, a flat market
Temporary help employment is roughly level with a year ago, so agency growth has to come from winning share rather than from a rising market.
New on AIRecruiter.co
- The Index trackers, updated
All six long-run trackers now carry these readings, each charted back to 2000 against its BLS source.
- AI Recruiting Statistics 2026
75+ figures on AI in hiring (adoption, ROI, the vendor market, fraud and bias), each tied to its primary source.
- Talent Market Answers
Sixteen common hiring questions, from time to fill to cost per hire, answered from the Index with the source under each figure.
- Recruiting ROI Calculator
Estimate the cost, speed and recruiter-capacity effect of AI-assisted hiring, with every benchmark drawn from the Index. Free, no signup.
Coming up
- Tuesday, November 3. Job openings and turnover (JOLTS) for September, 10:00 a.m. ET
- Friday, November 6. The October jobs report, 8:30 a.m. ET. The November Pulse follows it.
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